The Chocolate Game

 Let's talk about something sweeter than my other blog posts of late.

Let's talk chocolate. But no guarantees that anything I want to discuss will make you feel better. Obviously if you really want to feel better, buy yourself a chocolate bar and let it melt on your tongue. That is, if you can afford one.

My primary source of income is my job as a chocolatier for a small business called Apothecary Chocolates. I am passionate about my work, and I find it very enjoyable and fulfilling. But lately business has been lagging. Even our Christmas "rush" seemed a bit lackluster. Since January, I've hardly been able to work my full hours as we have more than enough chocolate already made. 

Now many reasons may factor into this, and many are in our control like marketing, advertising, and developing new products. But many more aren't and it's starting to show.

The first may be the time of year. Artisan or gourmet chocolate is a luxury item, a gift item primarily. Consumers don't tend to buy it for themselves; they buy it to gift to others. They may indulge in it from time to time or even share it among family but let's just say, it's not usually on the grocery list with the flour and the milk. So, when there are no approaching holidays or occasions in which gifts are usually exchanged, chocolate sales decline. 

As well, when the weather begins to warm up in many parts of the world, chocolate sales decline. Chocolate is a perishable item and good quality chocolate will begin to melt at 75 F. It becomes soup at 85 F. And anyone who's ever tried it knows that you can't just stick it in the fridge and hope to have the same chocolate bar come out again. So once temps in an area start hitting the mid-seventies, consumers start looking for the ice cream not the chocolate bars. 

But this happens every year. As an industry, it's a noted fact that these two items will occur in the chocolate business. We have to prepare to counter them and take advantage of every opportunity to push sales when consumers are looking to buy. This is why I'm so busy at Christmas!

Let's talk about what's entirely beyond our control: the weather. That's right, the weather. Particularly, the weather in West Africa, and South America. Many consumers don't connect Chocolate as an agricultural product, but it is. Chocolate is made from the cocoa bean which grows on the trunks of the cocoa tree. If these trees don't produce pods, production is down. So, if there is a bad growing year, there are fewer cocoa beans and therefore, less supply for a growing demand. We all know what that means, higher prices.

Cocoa trees only grow is a small area of this planet, specifically a certain range of latitude near the equator. Rainforests are where you find cocoa trees and that's typically where the farms are that harvest cocoa pods. See, these trees are not very hardy. In fact, most cocoa trees are very susceptible to disease. So, if a virus spreads, like one that has been spreading around in West Africa for the 2023-2024 growing season, it can take out trees and decrease the supply. West Africa, particularly Ghana and Cote de Ivorie, produce 60% of the worlds cocoa and if they go down, prices go up. 

How much? Well, according to the numbers I've seen, the price for a KG of cocoa in Feb. 2024 was $5.50 and now in Feb. 2025 it's $10.75 almost double. That's in one year, one bad year of crops. During the pandemic, the cost of cocoa doubled because of supply chain issues as well as supply. The price per KG varies month to month but it has never been this high and this coming year is expected to continue to rise until late in the year and into 2026 when supply looks to stabilize. 

Now for those of us who don't know metric (I always have to look up conversions!), that current market rate is over $11.00 per pound. And that's not a finished product. That's the cocoa supply, the beans. The beans are sold to manufacturers that then process them into chocolate. The process for turning a cocoa bean into a completed chocolate bar that consumers recognize as a sweet treat is a time consuming, expensive process. So, the $11.00 price tag is just the base. The cost of the manufacturing has to be added in and then the packaging and the delivery. It all adds up to a base price of chocolate BEFORE it even gets to our kitchen.

That's the real zinger. We can't control the weather or the threat of disease to cocoa trees. We can't control the supply lines. We certainly can't control any kind of import fees as most cocoa beans MUST be imported. The only place in the US that can grow cocoa trees is Hawaii, and there's no way that can supply the entire country. The US is the largest consumer of chocolate in the world. Anyway, every chocolate tastes a bit different. It's hard to just up and substitute one for another in candy. Especially if you want to maintain its quality.

The price of chocolate is going up and it will continue, more than likely, into late 2025 and may stabilize next year. Dependent on the weather in West Africa. 

So, what does that mean for little chocolatiers and small businesses that are just trying to keep their cases full for seasonal holidays? It means increased prices. Profit margins are very thin when base costs rise so high. You can't maintain a margin just by cutting expenses or reducing product offerings. Prices for consumers will rise. You've already seen it with large scale manufacturing like Lindt. If you thought all those high prices for your Valentine's Day candies were just inflation, think again. 

Like many good tasting things, chocolate may become an item that only wealthy consumers can afford. That means that small businesses and chocolatiers will lose profits and will go under. The diversity of the offerings will disappear, and chocolate will become something people will only indulge in on very special occasions. Once a year, consumers may purchase chocolate. This is the way it was once. Chocolate wasn't affordable for most people before Hershey's made their "Great American chocolate bar". European chocolatiers made dark chocolate for the aristocracy and catered to kings. 

All this information to say, if you can support your local chocolatiers and your small businesses, do so. Even bakeries who make chocolate cakes or croissants or brownies are going to feel that pinch. Cocoa isn't just in candy. Those chocolate chip cookies may stop having so many chips or chips of a poorer quality. Maybe they won't even be real chocolate. Ever eaten "almond bark" or those little colored candy wafers that melt in the microwave? Yup, that's not chocolate but that might be what gets substituted to cut costs. 

Cocoa powder is chocolate. Chocolate cakes, cookies, puddings, even hot cocoa mix is all dependent on the cocoa supply. Even products that contain cocoa butter which is also used in cosmetics will increase in price or become harder to find. It doesn't matter if it comes from a large-scale manufacturer like Mars M&M, Lindt, or Ghiradelli, or from a small artisan shop that handcrafts their treats, we're all in the same boat with the same supply chains. We're all on the struggle bus right now.

Your local shops don't want to charge you more, but they also want to keep their employees paid a living wage and keep the lights on. And they might want to pay themselves, too. It's a tough road for everybody, and if you can't afford that higher price, just keep the positive word-of-mouth going round. It doesn't cost you anything to say something nice about a chocolate product that you like but can't buy regularly. Your positive review or recommendation might convince someone else with a little cash to spend to take a chance on something new.

Just do all of us small chocolatiers a favor and don't whine and bitch too much about the price increase. All chocolate across the board is going up. If you can't say something nice, just don't say anything at all. If you want to tell us that our price is too much, I assure you it isn't. 

Buckle up, buttercups. 

Eat it while you got it!

-Wy